The controversial BJP decision to elevate hardliner Narendra Modi to
run the party’s campaign in 2014 elections and ruthlessly sideline a
leader such as L.K. Advani is bound to damage its image, but let us not
forget that it is a decisive victory for the RSS, which forced BJP
President Rajnath Singh, from behind the scenes, to go ahead with the
drastic step.
Hardline groups such as RSS, Shiv Sena and Vishwa Hindu Parishad have
been waiting in the wings for decades to somehow harden the BJP’s Hindu
nationalist image by encouraging leaders like Modi to lead the party
campaigns and also the party.
Surprisingly, some BJP leaders and most of the Indian media are
describing it as a personal feud between a senior and a junior leader of
the party. But apparently it is more than that. Advani realizes that
Modi is perceived as a divisive and controversial force that can damage
the party’s chances of heading a coalition in 2014. Who can deny that
Advani is the same leader who in the past did step aside when he
realized that Atal Behari Vajpayee would prove to be a better prime
minister for the party than him.
Anyhow, the appointment of Modi as the chairman of the BJP’s 2014
Election Management Committee has set the stage for next year’s Lok
Sabha elections, which now will be a contest between Modi on one side
and Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi on the other. So the fight will
now be between the two parivars - the Sangh Parivar and the Gandhi
Parivar.
It is very convenient for the Sangh Parivar to say that the ongoing
feud is nothing more than a manifestation of the internal democracy of
the party. But the fact remains that the old guard has openly expressed
its concern that elevating a known Hindu hardliner as the top national
leader in the party could be a big gamble in today’s India. The simple
reason is that the number of hardline Hindu voters in India is much less
than the total number of liberal Hindus and minorities combined.
Modi sees his leadership as the best bet for the BJP in 2014 polls.
He cites his three consecutive victories in the Gujarat elections, his
rapport with India’s top industrialists and the economic development he
has achieved in Gujarat as his top qualities to be projected as the
prime ministerial candidate. Although his personality is not
charismatic, his ability to rebutting the Congress party slogans is
great and his criticism of some of the present government policies is
valid. But the problem is he also carries the taint of the 2002 Gujarat
riots and an almost visceral hate for Muslims.
There was a time in 2004 when the most accepted BJP leader and then
prime minister Vajpayee also distanced himself from Modi. He had asked
Modi not to discriminate between Hindus and Muslims in the aftermath of
the 2002 Gujarat violence and had pushed for his resignation as chief
minister. And when the BJP lost the elections, Vajpayee held the
violence in Gujarat as one of the main reasons and acknowledged that not
removing Modi immediately after the Gujarat violence was a mistake.
Modi, instead had tried to equate the Gujarat violence with the 9/11
terror attacks in the US and responded to a newspaper's criticism that
compared him to Hitler by saying: "I have not read and I would not like
to read (the criticism).”
Perception matters a lot in politics. And when one talks to Indian
voters and watches the TV talk shows about Indian politics, Modi’s image
comes across as a dictatorial leader who has never felt any need to
express any regrets about the 2002 riots, who is ruthlessly in a hurry
to rule India and who doesn’t care about the country’s minorities and
feels that his party can win the elections with the support of just the
Hindu majority of the country.
Modi, according to some experts, comes across as a crude politician
who does not have any political “sanskars” and does not have an open
mind and the charisma for running a country like India. The way Modi
sent his supporters to demonstrate outside Advani’s home in Delhi; the
way he treated a whistle blower (senior IPS officer Kuldip Sharma) who
exposed some of his controversial actions, and the way he allegedly
shunned his wife are some clear indications that he can use any means to
achieve what he thinks is right. Deep down he is an authoritarian man
ill at ease with dissent. Even his wife has alleged that she is afraid
of losing her job and livelihood if she says something against her
politically powerful husband.
The bottom line is that Modi is now set to face Rahul Gandhi, who, in
a total contrast to Modi’s “clamouring approach” for the prime
ministerial post, is using the “renunciation approach” with a touch of
magnanimity. Rahul Gandhi has said he is in no hurry to become the prime
minister because at first he wants to work for the unity of his party.
But Rahul Gandhi also has a perception problem. He comes across as a
young man who has no experience at all of holding any position in the
government or otherwise. His critics say he is surrounded by the most
ineffective cronies led by a very insecure adviser like Kanishka Singh,
who for his own job security has been limiting Rahul Gandhi’s exposure.
The critics also say if he becomes the prime minister, it will not be
because of his ability but because he is a member of the Gandhi dynasty.
But it is also clear that Rahul Gandhi’s ‘sanskars’ are solid. When
he says becoming the prime minister is not his top priority, he means
it. He did not say he does not want to become the prime minister, but
only that it is not his top priority and that the party comes first.
Rahul has perhaps inherited this quality from his mother. For years
after Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination, Sonia Gandhi kept on rejecting the
party leadership until one day all senior politicians, who were fighting
over it, forced her to become the Congress chief.
So at a time when cracks are appearing in the BJP’s unity, Rahul
Gandhi comes across as a Congress leader who is trying to unite his
Congress party by making it more democratic and giving more power to the
middle ranks.
The young Congress vice-president, it seems, is following his
father’s footsteps. But, unlike his father, he doesn’t seem to be in a
hurry to implement the changes overnight. Rahul Gandhi, with his hard
work and interaction with the grassroots for the past nine years,
probably realizes, more than his father did, how murky and ruthless
Indian politics can be. And perhaps he also realizes that once he is
able to democratize the party and empower the neglected ranks in the
Congress, he will automatically become their natural choice for leading
them in parliament.
Whatever the results, one thing is certain that next year’s Lok Sabha
elections are bound to have far reaching repercussions for Indian
politics. Also, the RSS victory in forcing the BJP to sideline the more
acceptable moderate leaders and elevate a Hindu hardliner for the 2014
polls can prove to be a tipping point for the world’s largest democracy.