The nod to bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh will mark the end of over three-year long suspense since December 2009 when UPA rolled back the announcement for Telangana under pressure from leaders of the state's Coastal and Rayalaseema regions.
The ruling camp is said to have made up its mind to create a new state despite the continuing opposition from sections within the Andhra unit of the party and some central leaders. The leadership is still engaged in discussions but, it is learnt, they revolve around the nitty-gritties of how the decision is to be implemented.
The Congress organization, including state ministers, held a huge rally in Hyderabad on June 30 seeking Telangana. The massive show on the polarizing issue would not have been possible without the leadership's backing, and showed that the leadership had finally come around to resurrect its December 2009 promise for statehood. An announcement is likely before the Parliament session in the first week of August.
Division of Andhra is seen by Congress as a step towards redeeming its credibility that took a beating in the wake of its volte face in December 2009.
The party estimates that bifurcation will put it on top of 19 seats of Telangana since the only potent force in the region, Telangana Rashtra Samithi, would be left without its core issue. It would also seek to check any momentum in favour of BJP that is looking to beef up its modest organizational muscle with the promise of statehood.
The Congress move on Andhra to repair its political fortunes is part of the larger national design with an eye on 2014. In Tamil Nadu, it has moved closer to DMK, its ally turned detractor that only recently left UPA accusing the Centre of ignoring the plight of Tamils in Sri Lanka.
At the same time, the party sealed a deal last week with JMM, agreeing to prop up its government in Jharkhand in return for a tie-up for Lok Sabha polls while cornering 10 of the 14 parliamentary seats.
Congress has been rudderless in Andhra that accounts for 42 Lok Sabha seats since the death of its mascot Y S Rajasekhara Reddy in 2009. While the party faces hostility in Telangana for reneging on its promise of statehood, it is staring at massive mobilization in favour of rebel Jaganmohan Reddy in Coastal and Rayalaseema regions.
The resolution of Telangana is likely to be supplemented by efforts to tie up with Jagan.
There have been indications that AP could be reorganized in a way that two districts of Rayalaseema - Ananthapur and Kurnool - are included in Telangana. It would divide the state in half with 21 seats each in Telangana and Andhra.
Post-Telangana, the Centre is likely to provide a package to Andhra to develop a new capital over a time period to be specified. Hyderabad is likely to be given to the new state.
While it is late for UPA-2 to create Telangana while in office, any movement to start the process is seen as enough to convince the people that it is a final decision.
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